Introduction
This response will determine whether a proposed Directive can be adopted by the European Union (EU) under the Ordinary Legislative Procedure (OLP). The analysis will focus on whether the specified voting outcomes in the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union (the Council) satisfy the legal requirements set out in the EU Treaties. It will be argued that despite significant opposition in the Council from populous Member States, the specific rules of Qualified Majority Voting (QMV) mean that the proposal can be adopted.
The Ordinary Legislative Procedure
The Ordinary Legislative Procedure is the standard decision-making process for most areas of EU law, as established by Article 294 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU). It operates on the principle of co-decision, meaning that the European Parliament and the Council must both agree on a legislative proposal for it to be adopted (Chalmers et al., 2019). The procedure begins with a proposal from the European Commission, as is the case here.
The European Parliament’s Vote
The problem states that a simple majority of the European Parliament has voted in favour of the proposal. For the Parliament to adopt its position at first reading under the OLP, the general voting rule set out in Article 231 TFEU applies. This article stipulates that, unless the Treaties provide otherwise, the Parliament "shall act by a majority of the votes cast". A "simple majority" therefore meets this requirement. Consequently, the European Parliament has validly passed its part of the legislative procedure for this stage.
The Council’s Vote and Qualified Majority Voting (QMV)
The central issue is whether the vote in the Council is sufficient for the proposal to be adopted. The voting rule for the Council under the OLP is Qualified Majority Voting (QMV). The rules for QMV are defined in Article 16(4) of the Treaty on European Union (TEU) and further detailed in Article 238(3) TFEU. For a measure to pass under QMV, a ‘double majority’ is required.
The first condition is a Member State majority. At least 55% of the Member States must vote in favour. As the EU currently has 27 Member States, this means at least 15 must be in favour (0.55 x 27 = 14.85). In this scenario, three states (Germany, Italy, and France) are opposed, meaning 24 states are in favour. As 24 is greater than 15, this first condition is satisfied.
The second condition is a population majority. The Member States voting in favour must represent at least 65% of the total EU population. To assess this, we must consider the population of the opposing states. Using approximate 2023 population figures (Eurostat, 2023), Germany (approx. 84.3 million), France (approx. 68 million), and Italy (approx. 59 million) have a combined population of around 211.3 million. The total EU population is approximately 448.4 million. The opposing states therefore represent approximately 47% of the EU’s population (211.3m / 448.4m). This means the 24 states in favour represent only about 53% of the EU population, which is significantly below the required 65% threshold.
On this basis alone, it would appear the proposal fails. However, Article 16(4) TEU includes a further crucial provision concerning a ‘blocking minority’. It states that a blocking minority "must include at least four Council members, failing which the qualified majority shall be deemed to be attained". In this case, only three Member States (Germany, Italy, and France) voted against the proposal. Since this is fewer than the four members required to form a blocking minority, they cannot validly block the legislation. The rule in Article 16(4) TEU is explicit: if a group of opposing states fails to meet the four-member minimum for a blocking minority, the qualified majority is deemed to be reached, even if the 65% population threshold is not met.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the proposal can be adopted. The simple majority vote in the European Parliament satisfies the requirement of Article 231 TFEU. In the Council, while the states in favour do not represent 65% of the EU’s population, the opposition from Germany, Italy, and France does not constitute a valid blocking minority as it comprises fewer than four Member States. According to the rule in Article 16(4) TEU, the qualified majority is therefore deemed to have been attained. Both co-legislators having approved the measure, the Directive can be passed into law.
References
Chalmers, D., Davies, G. and Monti, G. (2019) European Union Law: Text and Materials. 4th edn. Cambridge University Press.
Eurostat (2023) <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/tps00001/default/table?lang=en">Population on 1 January</a>. Eurostat.
Consolidated Version of the Treaty on European Union [2012] OJ C326/13.
Consolidated Version of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union [2012] OJ C326/47.
